Cocoa Beach Insider

There are a lot of people looking for and anticipating a housing market crash. Interest rates have been hovering in the low 7% range and are at the highest rates we’ve seen since 2000. Homeowners Insurance is getting challenging to find for some of the homes in the area. Add to the mix the tropics heating up with our first named hurricane to hit the state of Florida in August…things are certainly lining up for a housing market crash. Let’s look at the numbers for August 2023 and see what’s happening

Brevard County

Active inventory 2776

Sold Property 1200

Months Supply  2.31  months

Average Price $437,508    2022 $428,178 Up 2.1%

Median Price   $360,000   2022 $365,000 Down 1.4%

List/Sale ratio 92%

Average price per SqFt $241.83  SqFt

Days On Market 38.32 DOM

Property selling in less than 7 days 418  ( 34% of the sales)

Property selling over $1M 46

Highest price sale $6,000,000 South Merritt Island Home

Home sales under $200K 24

Cocoa Beach & Cape Canaveral

Condos

A: Price range $129.9K to $1.897M

S: Price Range $160K to 1.555M

Active inventory 174

Sold condos 43

Months supply 4.04 Months

Average Price $496,907         2022 $481,680 Up 3% 

Median Price $425,000          2022 $398,000 Up 6.7%

Average price per square foot $363.26

Days On Market  38.72 DOM

Condos selling under $200K 3

Best-selling complex  Cape Shores and Royal Mansion with 3 sales each

Single Family Homes

A: Price range $448K to $3.95M

S: Price Range $500K to $2.4M

Active inventory 35

Sold homes 12

Months supply 2.91 Months 

Average Price $1,124,923       2022 $848,000 Up 32.6% 

Median Price $765,000          2022 $769,500 Down 0.6%

Average price per square foot $495.42

Days On Market 40.23 DOM

Homes selling under $500K 1

Homes selling over $1M 6

The biggest concern I am seeing with our housing market numbers is with the condos in our beach communities. Inventory is climbing, We are at our highest levels since June 2020. Sales were up a little in August, but if you look at 2018 & 2019 sales; we are still behind where we need to be. I believe the slowdown in condo sales is tied to the increase we have seen in the monthly association fees and the unknown impact from the milestone integrity inspections that will need to be completed on a lot of the older 3+ story condos that are along the A1A corridor. In spite of all this,  the prices appear to be holding up. August’s average and median prices are at or near the highest levels we have seen in the last 3 years. 

Single-family home sales in the Cocoa Beach area are down, but our inventory is low too. 5 of the 35 active homes are new construction and are useless to someone who needs a place in the next 30 to 45 days. 18 of the 35 homes are priced over $1M, which causes limits too. Even though we had 12 sales in August and are only averaging 10 per month in 2023…we aren’t too far behind from the sales that happened in 2016 to 2019 where we averaged (12 to 14 per month)

The active inventory for all of Brevard County has been on the rise. We have been sitting around 2,500 active properties in the last 12 months. We ended August with a 10% increase with 2776 active listings, which is the highest we have seen in May 2020. In spite of the increase in inventory and lagging sales since last summer; our month’s supply of properties is still under 2.5 months, which is indicating a sellers market. In order for the current market to shift towards a buyer’s market (6+ months supply) two things need to happen. Active inventory will need to grow to over 6000 properties for sale. The highest I have seen the active inventory was 2018/2019 where it was over 4000 properties.  Sales will need to drop to 1,000 closings or less per month. We see the occasional under 1000 properties selling per month. It either happens at the beginning of the year (January/February) OR when we have hurricanes affect Brevard County. So, yes a buyer’s market can certainly happen here in Brevard County again, I just don’t see it happening anytime soon.

While you are waiting for this to happen, let’s look at the prices.

Average sales prices for the county are still trending up. August was the highest average sales price we have seen. 

Median sales prices are also trending up. There was a slight pull-back compared to last August (which happened to be the highest median price in the last few years)

Yes, a market shift towards the buyer’s market should cause the prices to decline eventually. There’s no indication that it’s happening anytime soon.

So what do you think about the current market conditions? Do you agree with this overview or do you have a different opinion? Let me know in the comments.

The 7% and higher interest rates are certainly having an effect on a buyer who is getting a loan. These are the highest rates we have seen since 2000. The thing about these current rates, no one can say for certain that the rates will be rising or dropping anytime soon. I believe that if rates happen to rise to the 8% or 9% rates, it will certainly slow down more as buyers adjust to this rate. I also know that if they stay in the high 6% to low 7% rates we are seeing, buyers will adjust and sales will either maintain or pick up some. If rates drop to low 6% or even in the 5% range, there will be a slew of buyers coming back to the market sending us back towards the frenzy we saw in 2021 & 2022. Sales will certainly increase as the inventory starts to drop again…which will only drive prices higher. 

If you do have a move planned to the Brevard County area and you are wondering if you should buy now or wait, we should definitely talk. You can either drop a message below or give me a call at 321.795.1854

Eric Larkin is a Broker Associate with Real Broker, LLC. He lives, works, and plays in the Cocoa Beach area. If you have questions about moving or relocating to Cocoa Beach and the Space Coast, let me know! I get calls, texts, direct messages & comments on my posts every day about the real estate market and things that are happening in Cocoa Beach and the Space Coast that I love answering. Ask me your questions on moving, relocating here, or anything about the community. I am here to help. I have been helping buyers and sellers with their real estate needs since becoming a real estate agent in 2003. My focus is always on helping, answering your questions, and doing everything possible to make certain you have a smooth transaction from beginning to end.

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