Will Home Prices Drop In 2024?

Here is the latest YouTube video on our housing market in Brevard County Florida

It is time for another exciting installment of “How’s The Market!” Where I will get you up to date on what is happening on the Space Coast and the Cocoa Beach area. The 2023 housing market has had an interesting year.  Predictions by many people were that the market was going to crash with interest rates breaking through the 8% mark and insurance skyrocketing in Florida. 

The crash hasn’t happened yet. But here are some of the changes we saw in our market:

Active inventory is up 34% from the beginning of the year. We are at 3600 active properties in our MLS. This is in line with where we were in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Sales are down. The 4th quarter of 2023 is the 1st time we did not break 1000 sales for 3 consecutive months in a while. The last time I saw that happen was in 2017 and this was due to Hurricane Irma coming through. Sales for December were 896 properties.

Despite the increased inventory and slower sales, this is still considered a seller’s market because we are under a 4-month supply of inventory…Barely…December was a 3.98 month supply. If sales stay the same and inventory climbs just a little more, we will tip into a balanced market when the inventory is over a 4-month supply. It would not surprise me if happens in January & February 2024.

What do you think is happening with the prices? 

The average sales price for Brevard County has consistently beaten the previous year’s average sales price. Our 2023 average sales price is up almost 5% over 2022. Our 2023 average sales price is up 22% over 2021. 

The median price is leveled out in 2023 compared to 2022 with a 2% increase when looking at the ytd numbers. 2023 median price is up 21% from the median price in 2021.

Since the year-over-year percentages are low single digits…the question that needs to be answered is this…have we reached the peak and the prices will start trending down OR is this the plateau before prices jump up in 2024???

It’s no surprise with sales starting to slow the days on the market are getting longer. December’s days on the market are over 48 days, which is the highest we’ve seen in 2023. The average days on the market for the year have almost doubled over 2022 (40 versus 23 DOM) An interesting fact to point out is that even though it is taking longer to sell a property…22% of the sales in December were on the market 7 days or less…This just reinforces that if a property is priced correctly, it will sell quickly…

map showing the sales in December 2023 that were over $1M in price. The highest sale was in Viera at $3.2M

We are still seeing a lot of properties sell over the $1M price point. There were 34 closings over $1M with the highest sale happening in West Viera for $3.2M

Some interesting stats on how people are purchasing properties…Conventional Financing is still the number one type of purchase in 2023…What is interesting is that for November and December, we had more cash closings than conventional loans…this doesn’t happen often, yet it happened in back-to-back months…

Finally, for those who are looking for a deal and are looking for a bank owned property…a Foreclosure…These sales were up in 2023 compared to 2022. We had a 22% increase in bank owned properties. We went from 55 sales in 2022 to 67 in 2023. With the increase in property values the last few years, if a homeowner has gotten behind on their mortgage; they can usually make some money when they sell because there is equity. So, if you have gotten behind on your mortgage payments and the bank has started the foreclosure process…talk to an attorney to see if there is a way to keep you in the property. You should also talk to a  real estate agent to see what you can sell your property for and what your profits could be. 

Here is the breakdown of the numbers for Brevard County in December 2023

Brevard County

Active inventory 3,569

Sold property 896

Months Supply 3.98 months

Average Price $405,554   2022 $402,036

Median Price   $348,900  2022 $348,600

List/Sale ratio 93%

Average price per SqFt $232.36    SqFt

Days On Market 48.53 DOM

Property selling in less than 7 days 197  (22 % of the sales)

Property selling over $1M 34 properties

Highest price sale $3.2M Viera New Construction

Home sales under $200K 30

Cocoa Beach & Cape Canaveral

Single Family Homes

A: Price range $ 577K to $4.950MS: Price Range $375K to $1.960M 

Active inventory 27

Sold homes 11

Months supply  2.45 Months

Average Price $858,585      2022 $829,166 

Median Price $590,000       2022 $785,000 

Average price per square foot $413.29

Days On Market 42.18

Homes selling under $500K 2

Homes selling over $1M 4

Here is what is happening in the Cocoa Beach market. I haven’t spoken much about the single-family home sales in the last few months because there hasn’t been a lot happening. Everything is kind of flat. We had 5 months in 2022 and 2023 that had single-digit sales. Our best month of sales was July when we had 14 closings. There just aren’t as many single-family homes in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral compared to the condos. We have 3,298 single-family homes in this area compared to 11,500 condos…which is why we sell 2 to 3 times more condos than SFHs. When you average 10 sales a month, it’s a challenge to map out trends. You have an extra $1M sale in a month and it skews the average price, the median price, and sales per SqFt.

Here is the overview of the single-family housing market for 2023 in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. 

Active inventory, we have averaged 32 active listings at any given time the last 12 months. Currently, there are 30 homes on the market ranging in price from $577K to $4.9M. 5 of these homes are new construction, which means only 25 are ready for occupancy. 17 of the homes are priced over $1M. If you are looking for a home near the beach, it’s not cheap.

We sold 120 homes in 2023. They ranged in price from $250K to $4.2M. Average price was $873,853. The median price was $731,008. 16 of the homes were under $500K. 34 of the homes were over $1M.

Prices in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral will remain at a premium price until our inventory starts to grow and get back to the inventory levels we saw in 2018 & 2019 (50 to 60 homes on the market)

Condos

A: Price range $123K to $2.3MS: Price Range $129.5K to $1.308M 

Active inventory 228

Sold condos 25

Months supply 9.12 Months

Average Price $403,812      2022 $412,108 

Median Price $337,000       2022 $371,000

Average price per square foot $316.08

Days On Market  40.8 DOM

Condos selling under $200K 1

Best selling complex  Portside Villas had 3 sales ($279K, $270K, & $230K) The Villages Of Seaport had 3 sales ($430K, $350K, & $245K)

The condo market in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is a different story. Inventory is growing quickly. We started the year with 132 condos on the market and ended the year at 228 condos for sale…a 72% increase in inventory. Sales have been pretty flat in 2023. We had a good spring market from March through June where we averaged 57 closings per month…we ended the year with a very slow 4th quarter that averaged 28 closings per month. There were only 25 sales in December. The condo market is a solid buyers market starting the new year. 

Will we see other changes in the housing market in the next few months? Definitely. I will keep you up to date on what’s happening in Cocoa Beach and Brevard County. Whether you are moving next week, next month, or next year; I am certain you will have questions and I am here to help. You can either call/text me at 321.795.1854 or leave your info below and we can schedule a call.

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About the author:

Eric Larkin is a Broker Associate with Real Broker, LLC. He lives, works, and plays in the Cocoa Beach area. If you have questions about moving or relocating to Cocoa Beach and the Space Coast, let me know! I get calls, texts, direct messages & comments on my posts every day about the real estate market and things that are happening in Cocoa Beach and the Space Coast that I love answering. Ask me your questions on moving, relocating here, or anything about the community. I am here to help. I have been helping buyers and sellers with their real estate needs since becoming a real estate agent in 2003. My focus is always on helping, answering your questions, and doing everything possible to make certain you have a smooth transaction from beginning to end.

Planning a move or have questions about our area? Eric Larkin with Real Broker, LLC can help! Schedule a call here https://www.ericlarkin.com/schedule-a-call 

OR leave your info here and I will call you https://www.ericlarkin.com/contact-form


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