2023 Predictions Housing Market

How’s the market??? That’s a wrap for the 2022 real estate market and it was definitely an interesting one! We started the year with record low inventory and sales pacing with 2021 to end 2022 15% down in closed transactions. Before I get into all the details from 2022, here is a breakdown of the sales in December 

Brevard County

Active inventory 2753

Sold property 1062

Months Supply   months

Average Price $402,036    2021 $379,336 6% increase

Median Price   $348,600   2021 $310,000 12% increase

Sunrise photo with the Jacksonville Beach pier in the back with text overlay showing the median prices for Brevard County

List/Sale ratio 94%

Average price per SqFt $226.32 SqFt

Days On Market 41.82 DOM

Property selling in less than 7 days 289  ( 27% of the sales)

Property selling over $1M 30 property

Highest price sale $2,019,500 Merritt Island Riverfront

Home sales under $200K 35 homes

Cocoa Beach & Cape Canaveral

Condos

A: Price range $109K to $2.20MS: Price Range $ 126K to $1.1M
map view of the condos for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral

Active inventory 116

Sold condos 37

Months supply  Months 3.14

Average Price $412,108         2021 $385,676  7% increase 

Median Price $371,000          2021 $335,000 11% increase

Average price per square foot $322.33SqFt

Days On Market  39.84 DOM

Condos selling under $200K 4

Best-selling complex 3-way tie. Costa Del Sol, Riverview, and Royal Mansion with 2 each

Map view showing the 37 condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral.

Single Family Homes

A: Price range $ 450K to $2.550MS: Price Range $ 525K to $1.075M

Active inventory 28

Sold homes 6

Months supply 3.5 Months  

Average Price $829,166         2021 $765,183 8% Increase 

Median Price $785,000          2021 605,000 29.7% Increase 

Sunrise photo from the beach with shells in the foreground. Text overlay showing the median home prices in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral

Average price per square foot $368.09SqFt

Days On Market 49

Homes selling under $500K None

Homes selling over $1M 2. Both at $1.075M

What can we expect in 2023???

Overall, I think we ended 2022 on somewhat of a positive note (considering what happened last year). Interest rates climbing to over 6%, insurance costs going up, and two major hurricanes coming through Florida will have an impact on things. 

As I mentioned at the beginning of the post, we were down 15% on total transactions. Inventory has tripled from the low levels we saw at the beginning of the year. We are seeing over 1,000 price changes per month compared to the 400-500 per month we typically see. Changes are happening and will continue to happen in 2023.

spreadsheet showing the data from 2022 pulled from the MLS.

Will we see a wave of foreclosures or short sales coming on the market? Some of the headlines will make you think this will happen. NAR is bringing back its short sale designation and working on classes to prepare agents for both short sales and foreclosures. Here is what I see happening with foreclosures and short sales.

2022, we had 14,873 sales…73 were distressed…(59 foreclosures and 14 short sales)…that is less than 0.5%…Since 2017, distressed sales have been well under 6% of our sales in Brevard County.

Prior to 2017, foreclosures and short sales were a much larger percentage of our sales which peaked at 45% in 2009 and 2010. If you look at how quickly the distressed sales shifted in 2006 & 2007…you can see why NAR is bringing back the short sale and foreclosure classes. For this reason, I will be paying close attention to the foreclosure and short sale numbers because we could be seeing some more of the sales in 2023 or 2024.

If you happen to have fallen behind on your mortgage payments over the last few years because of COVID, what has happened with the economy, or any reason; please talk to a real estate agent about the value of your home. Based on how the property values have come up in the last 3 years, there is a very good chance you have some equity in your house. It would be better for you to sell the property and keep that equity versus letting the bank take your house back as a foreclosure and make the money. If you are in Brevard County, I can run the numbers and let you know where things are at for you and your family. If you are outside Brevard County, I can connect you with a real estate agent to run the numbers.

Prices and values

Since we have seen a jump in our inventory and our prices slow down some, you would expect to see a huge drop in prices and values. Here are the trends I am seeing. The average price for a property in Brevard County has been up comparing monthly sales in 2021 vs 2022.

Median prices for a property in Brevard County are trending the same…up when comparing the monthly sales price to the previous year.

If you are looking for a condo in Cocoa Beach, the same trends…Average price and median prices are up over the previous year.

Will we continue to see this trend in 2023? Probably not. Besides knowing the price of something cannot maintain an upward trend forever…there will be some fluctuations. We are starting to see that with the number of price changes. In the past, we would see 400-500 price changes per month. We averaged just over 500 in the first 6 months of 2022. In the last 6 months, we averaged over 1200. 

With the rise of our inventory and the slight pullback in sales, sellers will need to be aware of the home prices in their area when they list for sale. More competition means more selection for buyers, and this also tips the negotiating power back toward the buyers. 10 day home inspections are back. Repair concessions or actual repairs being done are back. Sellers are considering credits towards closing costs and doing the big ticket repairs for the sale to happen (new roof &/or new AC for example)

Does this mean that prices will be dropping 10%, 20%, or more? Maybe…probably not though. There is still a pretty good buyer demand out there where I am still seeing multiple offers and over-list price contracts. Not every transaction is like in 2021, but it is still happening throughout the county and at every price point. We will need to shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market to see major price drops across Brevard County.

What kind of market are we in? Buyers market? Sellers market? Balanced market?

If you have seen any of my market updates in the past, you have heard me say we have been in a seller’s market since 2012/2013. A seller’s market is where we have less than 4 months of inventory. A balanced market is where we have 4-6 months of inventory. A buyers market is where we have over 6 months. Our sales will need to drop below 1000 properties per month AND our inventory would need to rise to over 6000 properties for sale to shift into a buyer’s market. I see the active inventory every time I log into the MLS. I track the closings & other stats every month just to keep an eye on this. At this time, I do not see it happening anytime soon. There are too many people moving into our area to work at the Space Center, to work at one of the many government contract jobs, or to get their retirement home. If there is a change, I will let you know with my monthly housing market updates.

Sunrise on the beach with text overlay showing the difference between a sellers market and a buyers market

If you have plans of selling your home, just know you will have a few more homes to compete with compared to 2020, 2021, & 2022. You should do some prep work on your property before you list. You might need to replace your roof & AC in order for the buyer to get the insurance that is affordable. We should definitely talk if you have plans of selling in the next 90 days to discuss this further and go over strategies. https://www.ericlarkin.com/sell 

If you have any questions about the info on this post or an upcoming move, Eric Larkin with Real Broker, LLC can help! Simply leave a comment below.


About the author:

Eric Larkin is a Broker Associate with Real Broker, LLC. He lives, works, and plays in the Cocoa Beach area. If you have questions about moving or relocating to Cocoa Beach and the Space Coast, let me know! I get calls, texts, direct messages & comments on my posts every day about the real estate market and things that are happening in Cocoa Beach and the Space Coast that I love answering. Ask me your questions on moving, relocating here, or anything about the community. I am here to help. I have been helping buyers and sellers with their real estate needs since becoming a real estate agent in 2003. My focus is always on helping, answering your questions, and doing everything possible to make certain you have a smooth transaction from beginning to end.

What questions do you have about buying or selling a home? Contact Me

Call/Text 321-795-1854

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